Data-driven malaria prevalence prediction in large densely populated urban holoendemic sub-Saharan West Africa.

Over 200 million malaria cases globally lead to half-million deaths annually. The development of malaria prevalence prediction systems to support malaria care pathways has been hindered by lack of data, a tendency towards universal "monolithic" models (one-size-fits-all-regions) and a focus on long lead time predictions. Current systems do not provide short-term local predictions at an accuracy suitable for deployment in clinical practice. Here we show a data-driven approach that reliably produces one-month-ahead prevalence prediction within a densely populated all-year-round malaria metropolis of over 3.5 million inhabitants situated in Nigeria which has one of the largest global burdens of P. falciparum malaria. We estimate one-month-ahead prevalence in a unique 22-years prospective regional dataset of > 9 × 104 participants attending our healthcare services. Our system agrees with both magnitude and direction of the prediction on validation data achieving MAE ≤ 6 × 10-2, MSE ≤ 7 × 10-3, PCC (median 0.63, IQR 0.3) and with more than 80% of estimates within a (+ 0.1 to - 0.05) error-tolerance range which is clinically relevant for decision-support in our holoendemic setting. Our data-driven approach could facilitate healthcare systems to harness their own data to support local malaria care pathways.

Low plasma haptoglobin is a risk factor for life-threatening childhood severe malarial anemia and not an exclusive consequence of hemolysis.

Severe Malarial Anemia (SMA), a life-threatening childhood Plasmodium falciparum malaria syndrome requiring urgent blood transfusion, exhibits inflammatory and hemolytic pathology. Differentiating between hypo-haptoglobinemia due to hemolysis or that of genetic origin is key to understand SMA pathogenesis. We hypothesized that while malaria-induced hypo-haptoglobinemia should reverse at recovery, that of genetic etiology should not. We carried-out a case-control study of children living under hyper-endemic holoendemic malaria burden in the sub-Saharan metropolis of Ibadan, Nigeria. We show that hypo-haptoglobinemia is a risk factor for childhood SMA and not solely due to intravascular hemolysis from underlying schizogony. In children presenting with SMA, hypo-haptoglobinemia remains through convalescence to recovery suggesting a genetic cause. We identified a haptoglobin gene variant, rs12162087 (g.-1203G > A, frequency = 0.67), to be associated with plasma haptoglobin levels (p = 8.5 × 10-6). The Homo-Var:(AA) is associated with high plasma haptoglobin while the reference Homo-Ref:(GG) is associated with hypo-haptoglobinemia (p = 2.3 × 10-6). The variant is associated with SMA, with the most support for a risk effect for Homo-Ref genotype. Our insights on regulatory haptoglobin genotypes and hypo-haptoglobinemia suggest that haptoglobin screening could be part of risk-assessment algorithms to prevent rapid disease progression towards SMA in regions with no-access to urgent blood transfusion where SMA accounts for high childhood mortality rates.

Affinity proteomics reveals elevated muscle proteins in plasma of children with cerebral malaria.

Systemic inflammation and sequestration of parasitized erythrocytes are central processes in the pathophysiology of severe Plasmodium falciparum childhood malaria. However, it is still not understood why some children are more at risks to develop malaria complications than others. To identify human proteins in plasma related to childhood malaria syndromes, multiplex antibody suspension bead arrays were employed. Out of the 1,015 proteins analyzed in plasma from more than 700 children, 41 differed between malaria infected children and community controls, whereas 13 discriminated uncomplicated malaria from severe malaria syndromes. Markers of oxidative stress were found related to severe malaria anemia while markers of endothelial activation, platelet adhesion and muscular damage were identified in relation to children with cerebral malaria. These findings suggest the presence of generalized vascular inflammation, vascular wall modulations, activation of endothelium and unbalanced glucose metabolism in severe malaria. The increased levels of specific muscle proteins in plasma implicate potential muscle damage and microvasculature lesions during the course of cerebral malaria.

Circulatory hepcidin is associated with the anti-inflammatory response but not with iron or anemic status in childhood malaria.

Cerebral malaria (CM) and severe malarial anemia (SMA) are the most serious life-threatening clinical syndromes of Plasmodium falciparum infection in childhood. Therefore, it is important to understand the pathology underlying the development of CM and SMA as opposed to uncomplicated malaria (UM). Increased levels of hepcidin have been associated with UM, but its level and role in severe malarial disease remains to be investigated. Plasma and clinical data were obtained as part of a prospective case-control study of severe childhood malaria at the main tertiary hospital of the city of Ibadan, Nigeria. Here, we report that hepcidin levels are lower in children with SMA or CM than in those with milder outcome (UM). While different profiles of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines were observed between the malaria syndromes, circulatory hepcidin levels remained associated with the levels of its regulatory cytokine interleukin-6 and of the anti-inflammatory cytokine inerleukin-10, irrespective of iron status, anemic status, and general acute-phase response. We propose a role for hepcidin in anti-inflammatory processes in childhood malaria.

Severe childhood malaria syndromes defined by plasma proteome profiles.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral malaria (CM) and severe malarial anemia (SMA) are the most serious life-threatening clinical syndromes of Plasmodium falciparum infection in childhood. Therefore it is important to understand the pathology underlying the development of CM and SMA, as opposed to uncomplicated malaria (UM). Different host responses to infection are likely to be reflected in plasma proteome-patterns that associate with clinical status and therefore provide indicators of the pathogenesis of these syndromes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Plasma and comprehensive clinical data for discovery and validation cohorts were obtained as part of a prospective case-control study of severe childhood malaria at the main tertiary hospital of the city of Ibadan, an urban and densely populated holoendemic malaria area in Nigeria. A total of 946 children participated in this study. Plasma was subjected to high-throughput proteomic profiling. Statistical pattern-recognition methods were used to find proteome-patterns that defined disease groups. Plasma proteome-patterns accurately distinguished children with CM and with SMA from those with UM, and from healthy or severely ill malaria-negative children. CONCLUSIONS: We report that an accurate definition of the major childhood malaria syndromes can be achieved using plasma proteome-patterns. Our proteomic data can be exploited to understand the pathogenesis of the different childhood severe malaria syndromes.